Assume that Whatagraph sold a 20% equity stake to Open Circle Capital.
Then they are valued at €600K / 20% = €3M post-money.
Assume that this was a seed round.
And that Open Circle Capital wants to make 10x on its winners.
And that they need 2x to compensate for dilution.
Then they want to make 10 * 2 = 20x on their investment.
And Whatagraph needs a €3M * 20 = €60M exit value for its €3M valuation.
Assume that Whatagraph trades at 4x trailing 12 months revenue at exit.
And that there is no cash and debt.
Then they need an average €60M / 4 / 12 = €1.3M in monthly revenue for their €3M valuation.
Whatagraph charges businesses €200 per subscription per month.
Then they must invoice businesses €1.3M / €200 = 6,250 subscriptions per month for their €3M valuation.
For context: the Netherlands had 11,000 medium-sized and large businesses in 2018.
Different assumptions? That’s certainly possible!
Make a copy of the spreadsheet used for this post (File > Make a Copy…), put in your assumptions and draw your own conclusions.